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I. Poultry Meat
1. The Proportion of Poultry Meat Continues to Rise
In recent years, the proportion of poultry meat production in total meat output has shown a year-on-year upward trend, rising from 22.11% in 2016 to 30.91% in 2020. With the continuous maturity of white-feather broiler breeding technology and the popularization of frozen food, the China Merchants Industry Research Institute predicts that the proportion of China's poultry meat production in meat will rise to 35.39% in 2022.
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics, compiled by China Merchants Industry Research Institute
2. Poultry Meat Production Grows Steadily
China's poultry meat production continued to grow from 2017 to 2019. In 2018, China's poultry meat output was 19.94 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%; in 2019, China's poultry meat output was 22.39 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. The China Merchants Industry Research Institute predicts that China's poultry meat output will reach 24.624 million tons in 2022.
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics, compiled by China Merchants Industry Research Institute
3. Brazil Is China's Major Poultry Meat Importer
From January to October 2021, China imported 1.2054 million tons of poultry meat, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, with an import value of 2.785 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%; exported 185,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, with an export value of 531 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 21.0%. Imports mainly come from Brazil (48.3% of total imports), the United States (24.5%), Russia (8.4%), Thailand (5.9%), Argentina (5.2%). Imports from the US decreased by 11.4% month-on-month, and the import proportion decreased by 4.7 percentage points month-on-month. By product category, chicken feet, frozen boneless chicken and frozen whole chicken account for 45.0%, 22.8% and 22.6% of imports respectively. Main exports go to China's Hong Kong, Macao regions, Bahrain, Cambodia, Mongolia, etc.
Data source: General Administration of Customs, compiled by China Merchants Industry Research Institute
4. Per Capita Consumption Increases Accordingly
According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, in recent years, China's per capita consumption of poultry meat has shown a steady growth trend. China's per capita demand for poultry meat increased year by year from 2017 to 2019. In 2018, China's per capita demand for poultry meat was 14.3 kg, a year-on-year increase of 4.95%; in 2019, China's per capita demand for poultry meat was 16.2 kg, a year-on-year increase of 13.41%. The China Merchants Industry Research Institute predicts that China's per capita consumption of poultry meat will reach 18.14 kg in 2022.
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics, compiled by China Merchants Industry Research Institute
II. Chicken Meat
1. Chicken Meat Is an Important Part of Poultry Meat
Chicken meat is the main component of poultry meat, accounting for 63% of poultry meat output in 2020. China's chicken meat processing is mainly concentrated in whole chicken processing and sales, with few deep-processed products, leading to reduced product quality, increased costs and weak market competitiveness. In 2020, China's chicken meat output reached 14.85 million tons, second only to pork in domestic consumption. It is expected that China's chicken meat output will reach 15.68 million tons in 2022.
Data source: USDA, compiled by China Merchants Industry Research Institute
2. Poultry Meat Prices Rise
Breeding capacity reduction and increased consumption drive up poultry meat prices. In November 2021, the average market price of live chickens was 19.60 yuan per kilogram, up 2.3% month-on-month and 1.0% year-on-year; the average market price of white strip chickens was 21.82 yuan per kilogram, up 2.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year.
From the perspective of breeding efficiency, the price of white-feather broilers continued to rise in November, reaching 7.75 yuan per kilogram in the 4th week, up 8.8% compared with the 4th week of October, with a profit of 0.56 yuan per kilogram, turning a profit for the first time since the 1st week of September 2021; the breeding profit of yellow-feather broilers continued to increase, rising from 0.3 yuan per kilogram last month to 1.2 yuan.
Data source: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, compiled by China Merchants Industry Research Institute
III. Future Outlook for Poultry Meat
- Production: It is expected that the slaughter volume of commercial poultry will increase slightly in the later period, ensuring sufficient market supply.
- Consumption: With the arrival of the Spring Festival holiday, the holiday effect will boost poultry meat consumption. In addition, the recent rise in pork prices will also drive poultry meat consumption.
Comprehensive judgment: As the traditional consumption peak season approaches, poultry meat prices are expected to rise slightly with limited growth. With little change in breeding costs, breeding efficiency will continue to improve.